Will the Chinese Renminbi become the next International Reserve Currency?

It is not a matter of if, more a matter of when? It is inevitable that the renminbi will become the next currency to become international, the bigger question will it displace the dollar as the reserve currency. Already accounting for 10% of world GDP (15% measured by purchasing power parity rather than market exchange rates) and 9% of world trade. Moreover, in 2011, it is estimated to have accounted for about one fourth of world GDP growth. These numbers are only going to be higher by the year, estimates vary from all kinds of sources, Goldman, J.P. Morgan, Citi Bank all say something between 10-30 years as to when China will account for more of the world’s GDP than USA.

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Silk Road – Renowned route re-established?

The Silk Road can be dated all the way back to Alexander the Great, when his empire expanded to Central Asia and his reputable Alexandria Eschate (Alexandria the farthest). Present times have given us an opportunity to re-establish the famous road, connecting China to Central Asia to Europe. It had its greats and its lows, but we all, both the Chinese and Central Asian peoples dream of the day it will be recognized and prosperous once again.

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AwesomeShip - Winner of Startup Weekend 2011

54 Hours later, one team was to be numero UNO (number one, for all you non-Italians). The team has some awesome shit! Its called: 

                      

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Startup Weekend Hangover!

If you still havent heard F attended Startup Weekend (D was busy with school). And it was AWESOME.

What is startup weekend?


What in the WORLD happened in HK Startup Weekend?

48 Developers, Designers, Marketers, Product Managers and startup Enthusiasts came together and shared ideas, formed 8 teams, built and launched their STARTUPS!!!!

Check each teams presentation uploaded by http://goo.gl/BmunG they are awesome and I will guarantee you that you WILL be BLOWN AWAY!

More to come…

F&D 

Basic Model

Define

Decide what issue you are trying to resolve.
Agree on who the audience is.
Prioritize this project in terms of urgency.
Determine what will make this project successful.
Establish a glossary of terms.

Research

Review the history of the issue; remember any existing obstacles.
Collect examples of other attempts to solve the same issue.
Note the project supporters, investors, and critics.
Talk to your end-users, that brings you the most fruitful ideas for
later design.
Take into account thought leaders’ opinions.

Ideation

Identify the needs and motivations of your end-users.
Generate as many ideas as possible to serve these identified needs.
Log your brainstorming session.
Do not judge or debate ideas.
During brainstorming, have one conversation at a time.

Prototype

Combine, expand, and refine ideas.
Create multiple drafts.
Seek feedback from a diverse group of people, include your end users.
Present a selection of ideas to the client.
Reserve judgment and maintain neutrality.
Create and present actual working prototype(s)

Objectives

Review the objective.
Set aside emotion and ownership of ideas.
Avoid consensus thinking.
Remember: the most practical solution isn’t always the best.
Select the powerful ideas.

Implement

Make task descriptions.
Plan tasks.
Determine resources.
Assign tasks.
Execute.
Deliver to client.

Learn

Gather feedback from the consumer.
Determine if the solution met its goals.
Discuss what could be improved.
Measure success; collect data.
Document.

More to come..

F&D

myMenu - Practice Elevetor Pitch!

Consumers during peak hours face a queue up time of up to 14 minutes in “queue-up” restaurants like Yoshinoya, can.teen, café de Corale. myMenu solves this problem by bringing a real time menu to the hands of these consumers on their iPhones, iPads and Android devices. People will be able to pre-order, checkout and eliminate queue up time as they instantly collect their orders upon arrival.

This in effect increases food processing and preparation time, hence allowing the restaurants to process a larger batch of orders, and all of this adds up to increase the customer base.

This changes everything again. And it just works.

More to come..

F&D

Tim Cook is not a Long-term CEO at Apple, but is Anyone?

Tim Cook, Apple’s chief operating officer, replaced Steve Jobs as the chief executive of Apple. To step down must have been a heart-wrenching decision to Jobs because Apple is Jobs’ baby literally. No mother will voluntarily abandon the custody of her children, suggesting that Jobs’ health must be in serious condition.

The news of Jobs’ departure should matter to many investors as Apple’s shares are widely held by U.S. investors. Currently, Apple is one of the largest companies in the world with a market cap of approximately $350 billion. Does the market have confidence in Cook to become a long-term chief executive at Apple? The answer is unambiguously NO.

Following Cook’s announcement, Apple’s shares dropped by 5.15% in the after-markets trading, 2.95% in the following open, and 0.65% in the following close. In contrast, S&P 500 index was nearly flat in the after-markets trading and in the following open. Yet, it dropped by 1.56% in the following close. The unfavorable stock market reaction to Cook’s announcement is in sharp contrast to other CEO appointments at Apple. Table 1 shows that Apple’s shares rose significantly when it hired CEOs from outside the company. Precisely, its stock price rose by 5.7% for John Sculley and 3.08% for Gilbert Amelio when they were named the CEO of Apple, respectively. In contrast, Apple’s shares dropped slightly when its CEOs were promoted from within the firm.


table1


Yet, the unfavorable stock market reaction to Cook’s appointment reflects only a portion of the negative impact once Jobs leaves the company permanently. This is because the possibility that Cook will replace Jobs as Apple’s CEO has already been anticipated by the market. Specifically, Jobs had taken three medical leaves prior to his departure announcement. Table 2 presents the stock market reaction when Cook was named the interim CEO of Apple.

table1
Similarly, another indication that the market has no great confidence in Cook is that when he was named the chief operating officer of Apple — a successor for Steve Jobs — Apple’s shares dropped by 1% while S&P 500 index rose by 0.3 percent. This stock price reaction was worse than that for Michael Spindler when he was named Apple’s chief operating officer — its shares rose by 1.5% while S&P 500 index dropped by 0.18%.

The negative stock market reaction to Cook’s appointment is clear and consistent with findings in existing literature. Extant studies find that stock prices rise when firms appoint CEOs through external hiring but drop when they are appointed through internal promotions. Further, current studies also indicate that ability appears higher for CEOs appointed through external hiring rather than internal promotions.

Should stockholders be relieved as Apple’s shares fell only slightly following Jobs’ departure announcement? The answer is affirmative as long as Steve Jobs is still functional and can maintain his influence at Apple. One indication of his continuing influence at Apple is that Jobs will take the chairman of the board position. Jobs can still make all major corporate and innovation decisions at Apple. This is vital to Apple as existing studies show that founders add value to companies even when they take merely a chairman position in the companies. Further, Jobs had been successful in running Apple even when he took just a nominal position. Jobs pulled many strings to revive Apple when he was just an unpaid adviser (and not even the interim CEO) of Apple in 1997. In addition, Apple has plenty of cash to retain top talent and fund product innovation: Apple has cash and securities worth approximately $76 billion. Apple will continue to rake in generous profit from its highly successful products, e.g., iPod, iPhone, and iPad. The product line in the near term has also been established under Jobs’ helm.

Nevertheless, product innovation is likely to become a major problem when Jobs leaves Apple permanently. No one can truly replace Steve Jobs, an iconic founder like the late Henry Ford and Walt Disney, for his creativity. Under his leadership, Apple invented many wildly successful products such as Macintosh, iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Jobs is also a revolutionist. Apple’s success is built on its ability to innovate and expands its reach to other markets. Prior to Jobs’ return in 1997, Apple was merely a computer company. During the history of Apple from 1980-1997, the most Apple could earn a single quarter was merely $188 million in net income. Jobs transformed Apple into a trendy consumer electronic company. In particular, Apple made a sizable profit from its widely popular electronic products. Apple’s quarterly net income broke the $1.5 billion mark after iPhone was introduced and shortly reached the $6 billion mark after iPad was introduced.

Cook is widely recognized for his ability as an effective manager, particularly for operational matters. Nevertheless, he has no track record in product innovation, the heart and soul of Apple’s success. Further, Cook has no experience in running a large public corporation on his own. As Jobs has literally made all major decisions at Apple, it is challenging to predict whether Cook can even run Apple smoothly once Jobs leaves the company for good. Winning is easy when the best player is on your team. Scottie Pippen won six NBA champions with the Chicago Bulls when he was playing with Michael Jordan but none when Michael Jordan retired.

As the business landscape can change rapidly, it is doubtful whether Cook can weather any future dynamic challenges. Competition is ferocious down the road as many companies have positioned themselves to compete directly with Apple. Importantly, Apple is a large complex organization with employees of 46,600 fiercely loyal to Jobs, their charismatic leader. It is unclear whether loyalty is transferable here when Jobs is gone for good. As Apple’s savior, Jobs has been under tremendous pressure from customers, media, shareholders, and critics for numerous issues. Examples of these issues include the options-backdating practices, the unusual compensation practices, especially for granting mega options to executives, declaring no cash dividend, CEO succession plan, and its highly centralized corporate governance practices. Given the amazing run of Apple since Jobs’ return, expectations from Apple’s stakeholders can be quite high for Cook. Can Cook survive under all these challenges? The answer should be obvious.

Professor K.M. Wan


[The author is especially grateful to Tim Hau and Frances Xu for their insightful comments. The Chinese version of this article is published at the Hong Kong Economic Journal (香港信報) 2011-09-08]

We all know what day is tomorrow!!!

Yeap D-Day! All of internet will breakdown, IP addresses will go crashing, communications will be blocked and twitter will be whaled

But one thing is for sure! F&D & co will be online throu-out the whole event updating YOU with their impressions and opinions!

There are some awesome friends that will be twitting abt the “lets talk Iphone” event being held in Cupertino!

FOLLOW THEM AT: @saadnajafkhan; @mfts; @prashmaster3000; @mauriziogalli; @takwid; @furuzonfar

OR just follow #AnythinAmazin on twitter.

Stay close or the “i” might just bump you!


More to come…

F&D

Twelve e-commerce Trends … in … wait for it… wait… CHINA!

F&D been reading random reports, articles and whtnots from the beginning of Big Bang Theory (no not the TV show…)

So they thought they sum it up for you in 12 nice points. Read on.

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Business Models!!! They are everywhere!

F&D think about business models all the time, day, night, lectures, breaks, lunch. So F&D thought we (YOU and F&D) could try to grow a list of various business models that you, F or D have seen.

In the World of Finance (aka Hong Kong) business models, which is basically how a business uses its resources to provide products/services to its customers, effectiveness is measured by gross margin, i.e. $$ made - costs divided by $$ made.

i.e. this measures how efficient you are with your model, the higher the better.

So what F&D have thought up of so far:

  • Manufacturing Model
  • Advertiser Model
  • Data Model
  • Merchant Model
  • Brokerage Model
  • Commision Model

Contribute! Ask any business that you have seen and would like to know what their secret sauce is! Just ask and F&D will break it down for you! The more the better. F&D will also try to break down the ones listed.

More to come…

F&D